The Swiss economy was relatively volatile in 2025, partly due to deliveries front-loaded at the beginning of the year in anticipation of higher US tariffs. In the third quarter, GDP growth in Switzerland even turned negative due to a contraction in the pharmaceutical industry. The services sector was supported by robust private consumption and remained a solid pillar of the Swiss economy. We expect continued growth for the Swiss economy in 2026 and 2027, but economic expansion will be somewhat more modest than anticipated one year ago. Private consumption can be expected to be a stabilizing force, while exports will be somewhat less dynamic than in the past. While the global economy was resilient last year, higher tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty are weighing on global trade. However, the reduced U.S. tariffs on Swiss products improve the outlook, and the gradual recovery of the German economy will have some beneficial effects for the Swiss industry. A special effect related to the temporary shutdown of a Swiss nuclear plant increases electricity imports, which weighs on the trade balance in the winter of 2025/26. At the same time, many Swiss exporters had filled their inventories in the United States at the beginning of 2025, which currently weighs on exports.

We currently expect the Swiss economy to expand by 1.1 percent in 2026 (sport event adjusted) after 1.4 percent in 2025. The economy will get somewhat more dynamic in 2027 with a growth rate of 1.6 percent. Inflation will stay low and remain between 0 and 1 percent. We currently expect the Swiss National Bank to hold interest rates constant at zero. If there is no unexpected deterioration in the economic situation, it will not reintroduce negative interest rates, according to our assessment.