Webinar Announcement: March 19, 12:00-13:00 Central European Time
How to build a Ukrainian Development Bank
by Inna Melnykovska (Central European University), Eric Monnet (Paris School of Economics), and Matthias Thiemann (Sciences Po Paris)
The fate of Ukraine remains highly uncertain. In the long term, a strong economic recovery will be crucial for ensuring stability and peace. Recently, Inna Melnykovska, Eric Monnet, and Matthias Thiemann proposed establishing a Ukrainian development bank. According to these economists, such an institution could integrate existing financial structures, channel EU aid, support small and medium-sized enterprises, and drive economic modernization. In this webinar, they will discuss their ideas for building a Ukrainian Development Bank.
- Time: March 19, 2025, 12:00 – 13:00 Central European Time
- Online
- Presentation and discussion in English. Click HERE to register.
Here is what our network liked (selection): Trade uncertainty, the global macro database, the OEC global trade data, and much more…
It’s not surprising, but it’s still impressive: Trade uncertainty has dramatically increased! This indicator stems from NL Analytics (based on the article by Caldara, D. & Iacoviello, M. & Molligo, P. & Prestipino, A. & Raffo, A. (2019). The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty. Journal of Monetary Economics, 109 38-59.)
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Mario Draghi has always been a clear and impressive thinker! His piece in the Financial Times is highly recommended.
“Forget the US — Europe has successfully put tariffs on itself: High internal barriers and regulatory hurdles are far more damaging for growth than anything America might impose”
„The IMF estimates that Europe’s internal barriers are equivalent to a tariff of 45 per cent for manufacturing and 110 per cent for services. These effectively shrink the market in which European companies operate: trade across EU countries is less than half the level of trade across US states. And as activity shifts more towards services, their overall drag on growth becomes worse.“
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Wow, that’s exciting and a great public good! „The Global Macro Database: A New International Macroeconomic Dataset“ by Karsten Müller, Chenzi Xu, Mohamed Lehbib, and Ziliang Chen.
„The Global Macro Database is an open-source, continuously updated dataset of macroeconomic statistics that unifies and extends existing resources. By harmonizing and integrating data from 32 major contemporary sources—including the IMF, World Bank, and OECD—with historical records from 78 additional datasets, we construct comprehensive annual time series for 46 variables across 243 countries.“
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Highly relevant! „Inflation and Bank Profits: Monetary Policy Trade-offs“ by Katharina Bergant, Mai Hakamada, Divya Kirti, Rui Mano.
„If losses at individual banks leave room for wider panics—despite needed improvements in bank regulation and supervision and other ex ante measures—central banks may need to weigh raising rates to contain inflation against the potential for financial instability.“
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Wow, super interesting!
„The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) offers detailed global trade data, covering over 500 subnational regions, 5,000 products, and thousands of firms. It enables users to explore trade patterns, compare economic performance, and generate reports quickly using clear visualizations.“
Free and paid plans are available.
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One can learn a lot by reading this paper! „Trade Policy, Exchange Rates, and the Globalization Surge of the 1990s“ by Douglas A. Irwin
„The decision by developing countries to open up their economies to foreign trade and investment in the 1980s and 1990s was a momentous event in world history.“
„Like during the Great Depression, the exchange rate regime was a key factor behind a country’s trade policy.“
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The rising US federal debt is concerning! Very interesting report by Wendy Edelberg, Benjamin Harris, and Louise Sheiner:
„Assessing the Risks and Costs of the Rising U.S. Federal Debt“
„…our analysis suggests that, so long as the U.S. maintains its strong institutions and a fiscal trajectory that isn’t vastly worse than the one currently projected, the chance of a severe and enduring fiscal crisis over the next few decades from debt accumulation appears quite low.“
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Wow, super interesting!
„Global Value Chains in a World of Uncertainty and Automation“ by Marius Faber, Kemal Kilic, Gleb Kozliakov, and Dalia Marin.
„The world economy has become more and more globalized as firms have organized production along global value chains. But more recently, globalization has stalled. This paper shows that higher uncertainty, in combination with better automation technologies, has likely contributed to that trend reversal.“
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Good to see that the new English LinkedIn page of the Banque de France: Economic Research Banque de France
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Super interesting! „Reconciling Macroeconomics and Finance for the U.S. Corporate Sector: 1929 to Present“ by Andrew Atkeson, Jonathan Heathcote, and Fabrizio Perri „We examine how to quantitatively reconcile the high volatility of market valuations of U.S. corporations with the relative stability of macroeconomic quantities since 1929.“
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