Webinar Announcement: Productivity Developments in the Euro Area
The next webinar will take place on September 4 (12:00-13:00 CET). David Sondermann from the European Central Bank will give a presentation on productivity developments in the euro area. He will discuss the structural challenges that are dampening productivity growth in Europe. He will also explain why productivity growth in the eurozone has been dampened by specific temporary factors in recent years and why, according to his analysis, at least a slight recovery can now be expected.
- Title: Reasons for the recent decline in productivity in the euro area
- Date and time: September 4, 2024, 12:00 – 13:00 (Central European Summer Time)
- Online
- Lecture and discussion in English, co-organized by the Swiss network for productivity growth
Registration to receive the Zoom link is required here
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We would also like to draw your attention to an event organized by the Swiss National Bank.
Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture „The Art of Monetary Policcy“ by Kristin J. Forbes, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Thursday, 3 October 2024, ETH Zurich, Audi Max (HG F 30) Drinks reception: 4.45 – 5.30 pm Lecture: 5.30 – 7.00 pm, Live streaming available: www.snb.ch
More information is available here
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Jay Powell got the most media attention at the Jackson Hole conference. But there were also many great papers presented.
For instance: „Revisiting the Phillips and Beveridge Curves: Insights from the 2020s Inflation Surge“ by Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti B. Eggertsson
„We define a Beveridge-threshold (BT) unemployment rate. Once unemployment falls below this rate, policymakers need to be alert to sharp inflationary pressures arising from demand or supply shocks. We explore several policy implications.“
https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/10385/Eggertsson_Paper_JH.pdf
By the way, Pierpaolo Benigno is a teacher in the Master’s program in International and Monetary Economics.
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Food for thought by Valentin Grob and Gabriel Züllig in this SNB working paper: „Corporate leverage and the effects of monetary policy on investment: a reconciliation of micro and macro elasticities“
A very interesting paper! By the way, Valentin is an alumnus of the Master’s program in International and Monetary Economics.
„We investigate how the level of corporate leverage affects firms’ investment response to monetary policy shocks. Based on novel aggregate time series estimates, leverage acts amplifying, whereas in the cross section of firms, higher leverage predicts a muted response to monetary policy.“
Paper: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2024/working_paper_2024_08
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Still struggling to understand the market turbulence at the beginning of August? This interesting BIS Bulletin can help.
„The market turbulence and carry trade unwind of August 2024“ by Matteo Aquilina, Marco Jacopo Lombardi, Andreas Schrimpf, and Vladyslav Sushko.
„…a number of factors behind the recent turbulence reflect structural features of our financial system, notably the greater heft of market-based finance (Aramonte et al (2021)). Of particular concern are the ones that enable the build-up of large positions in periods of calm and necessitate their quick unwinding when volatility rises. The reliance on leverage for many of these positions implies that investors will have to respond more strongly to adverse shocks to avoid significant losses.“
https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull90.htm
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Geopolitical fragmentation calls for new research avenues!
„‘Connector’ countries in a geoeconomically fragmented world“ by Shekhar Aiyar and Franziska Ohnsorge
„Drawing from a newly constructed database, this column explores the concept of ‘connector’ countries, which can be vertical along supply chains or horizontal across markets. The authors argue that vertical connectors may increasingly come under political pressure, whereas horizontal connectors may be more resilient to geopolitical shocks.“
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/connector-countries-geoeconomically-fragmented-world
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The WTO public forum (September 10-13) looks interesting!
https://www.wto.org/english/forums_e/public_forum24_e/public_forum24_e.htm
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Macro Musings with David Beckworth and Carola Binder on the History of Inflation, the Fed Framework Review, and the Promise of Nominal GDP Targeting:
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This looks like a great paper! „Distributional Consumer Price Indices“ by Xavier Jaravel.
„This paper develops a new public database providing estimates of inflation heterogeneity across sociodemographic groups in the United States in real time.“
„First, I find that “real” income inequality across households between 2002 and 2019 has increased about 45% faster with D-CPIs, compared to the official CPI.“
„Second, I find that today 2.3 million people are below the “real” poverty line using D-CPIs but above the poverty threshold using the official CPI.“
„Third, focusing on the inflation burst in the years following the Covid-19 pandemic, I find that inflation was higher for the middle class, compared to low-income and high-income households.“
https://www.xavierjaravel.com/_files/ugd/bacd2d_1bd06a592911439a9f9c8a1ddfe6f6df.pdf
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“Taming Public Debt in Europe: Outlook, Challenges, and Policy Response” by Saioa Armendariz; Ezequiel Cabezon ; Larry Q Cui ; Silvia Domit ; Alina Iancu ; Giacomo Magistretti ; Rohan Srinivas ; Yu Ching Wong:
Unprecedented broad-based fiscal support during the pandemic and energy shocks have led to high stocks of public debt in most European countries. The resulting higher debt stocks and unwinding support from central banks have deteriorated debt stabilization probabilities in Europe overall, with key differences across economies.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2024/08/23/Taming-Public-Debt-in-Europe-Outlook-Challenges-and-Policy-Response-553526
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The European Commission is hosting a roundtable event on 11 September (in-person or online) to exchange on the recently strengthened focus on the functioning of short-term debt markets, i.e. commercial paper and certificates of deposit, in the EU and globally.
The discussion will take place against the background of the objectives on the capital markets union (CMU), EU competitiveness and preservation of financial stability. It will bring together market participants across the entire spectrum: issuers, investors, broker-dealers, as well as platforms and post‑trade infrastructure operators.
The event is intended to help us gather evidence and insight into the functioning of short-term debt markets, identify potential avenues for improvement, and understand the role policymakers can play in addressing shortcomings.
Register until 5 September: https://finance.ec.europa.eu/events/roundtable-eu-markets-commercial-paper-and-certificates-deposit-2024-09-11_en
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