Webinar Announcement: Productivity Developments in the Euro Area
The next webinar will take place on September 4 (12:00-13:00). David Sondermann from the European Central Bank will give a presentation on productivity developments in the euro area. He will discuss the structural challenges that are dampening productivity growth in Europe. He will also explain why productivity growth in the eurozone has been dampened by specific temporary factors in recent years and why, according to his analysis, at least a slight recovery can now be expected.
- Title: Reasons for the recent decline in productivity in the euro area
- Date and time: September 4, 2024, 12:00 – 13:00 (Central European Summer Time)
- Online
- Lecture and discussion in English, co-organized by the Swiss network for productivity growth
Registration to receive the Zoom link is required here
Geopolitical risk index
There are a lot of discussions about geopolitical risks. Indeed, the world looks quite dangerous. Interestingly, the geopolitical risk index (GPR) by Caldara and Iacoviello (30-day moving average) does not indicate dramatically elevated geopolitical risks. Yet, a significant increase compared to previous years is clearly visible.
Source: Data downloaded from https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm on 07/30/2024. The index is regularly updated and based on Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), “Measuring Geopolitical Risk,” American Economic Review, April, 112(4), pp.1194-1225.
Thought-provoking!
„The Global Financial Cycle: Quantities versus Prices“ by Eugenio M Cerutti and Stijn Claessens
„We quantify the importance of the Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) in domestic credit and various local asset prices and compare it with that in capital flows.“
„Our findings help to put the existing literature into context and have important implications for economic and financial stability policies, notably for the usage of quantity tools (e.g., FX interventions) that impact asset prices.“
The World Trade Organization statisticians released the World Tariff Profiles 2024, which provides an overview of countries‘ tariffs. It also includes an analytical chapter on tariffs on critical minerals essential for the EV value chain:
Macro Musings with James Bullard and David Beckworth:
James Bullard on FAIT, Nominal GDP Targeting, and the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review
“As the Fed approaches its next framework review, there are numerous modifications the central bank could consider to further enhance its current monetary policy framework.”
8th Annual Macroprudential Conference organized by Deutsche Bundesbank, De Nederlandsche Bank, and and Sveriges Riksbank took place on June 26-27. Papers and presentations can be downloaded here.
Geopolitics and trade: What the Hinrich Foundation has been reading.
Firms’ inflation perceptions and own-price expectations have been highly responsive to Consumer Price Index inflation data releases since 2022, from Ivan Yotzov, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, and Gregory Thwaites
Very interesting results in this working paper!
„Toward a Holistic Approach to Central Bank Trust“ by Sandra Eickmeier and Luba Petersen
„Households who state that competence, which we define as the ECB’s performance in maintaining stable prices and making decisions grounded in rules, science, and data, matters for their trust in the ECB, tend to express higher trust in the ECB. Conversely, those who place greater importance on values, particularly the integrity of top central bankers, honest communication and broader concern, tend to trust the ECB less.“
Highly relevant!
„Long-Run Trends in Long-Maturity Real Rates, 1311–2022.“ by Rogoff, Kenneth S., Barbara Rossi and Paul Schmelzing in the American Economic Review.
„In contrast to existing consensus, we find that real interest rates are in fact trend stationary and exhibit a persistent downward trend since the Renaissance. …We further show that demographic and productivity factors do not represent convincing drivers of real interest rates over long spans.“
Published version in the American Economic Review
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