Webinar Announcement: Productivity Developments in the Euro Area
The next webinar will take place on September 4 (12:00-13:00). David Sondermann from the European Central Bank will give a presentation on productivity developments in the euro area. He will discuss the structural challenges that are dampening productivity growth in Europe. He will also explain why productivity growth in the eurozone has been dampened by specific temporary factors in recent years and why, according to his analysis, at least a slight recovery can now be expected.
- Title: Reasons for the recent decline in productivity in the euro area
- Date and time: September 4, 2024, 12:00 – 13:00 (Central European Summer Time)
- Online
- Lecture and discussion in English
Registration will be possible in August.
The use of AI in Economic Modelling and Forecasting
Interesting presentations at this SUERF-ECB-Bank of Finland-Bank of Italy workshop!
https://www.suerf.org/events/the-use-of-ai-in-economic-modelling-and-forecasting/
Recording available:
The European Commission is seeking inputs on the various uses of artificial intelligence (AI) in finance
Targeted consultation on artificial intelligence in the financial sector:
Very good analysis on productivity developments in Europe:
„The Past, Present and Future of European Productivity“ by Antonin Bergeaud.
„European productivity has experienced a marked deceleration since the 1970s, with the productivity gap between the Euro area and the United States widening significantly since 1995, a trend further intensified by the COVID-19 pandemic.“
BIS Annual Economic Report: Laying a robust macro-financial foundation for the future
“Following the most synchronised and intense monetary policy tightening in a generation, inflation has declined substantially with little collateral damage so far. The financial system has been largely strain-free since March 2023, and market pricing suggests a smooth landing.”
https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2024e1.htm
Good speech by Mary C. Daly (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Getting It Right: Meeting Uncertainty with Conditionality
„Importantly, as actual inflation has fallen, inflation expectations—what we all believe about the future—have followed suit, confirming that households, businesses, and markets know that the Federal Reserve is committed to reaching its inflation goal.“
New research by the International Monetary Fund finds that deglobalization trends like reshoring and friendshoring could significantly harm the global economy. The study suggests these strategies could lead to long-term GDP losses of up to 4.5%:
The OECD published a new report: Revitalising Services Trade for Global Growth – Evidence from Ten Years of Monitoring Services Trade Policies Through the OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI).
“The global economy relies increasingly on services for economic growth, employment, and innovation. Moreover, services trade plays a crucial role in mitigating some of the biggest challenges of our times, including by strengthening resilience in supply chains, supporting the digital transformation, and enabling a greener economy.”
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/trade/revitalising-services-trade-for-global-growth_3cc371ac-en
The Swiss National Bank has a new Chairman!
“At its meeting of 26 June 2024, the Federal Council appointed Martin Schlegel as new Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank and thus as successor to Thomas Jordan. Martin Schlegel will assume office with effect from 1 October 2024 and take over as Head of Department I in Zurich. He has until now served as Vice Chairman of the Governing Board and headed the SNB’s Department II.
Effective as of the same date, the Federal Council appointed Antoine Martin, currently Member of the Governing Board and Head of Department III, as Vice Chairman of the Governing Board. He will take over as Head of Department II in Berne.
Acting on a proposal from the Bank Council, the Federal Council appointed Petra Tschudin, currently Alternate Member of the Governing Board, as new Member of the Governing Board. She will take over as Head of Department III in Zurich with effect from 1 October 2024.”
https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases/2024/pre_20240626
“Enhancing productivity and growth in an ageing society” by Christophe André, Peter Gal und Matthias Schief (OECD Working Paper): “The paper quantifies ageing’s potential impacts on labour supply and GDP per capita, showing that the extension of working lives as longevity rises could mitigate, but not completely offset, the negative effects of ageing on employment. It also examines how ageing may affect productivity through various micro and macroeconomic mechanisms.”
Dollar Dominance in the International Reserve System: An Update: by Serkan Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen , Chima Simpson-Bell:
Don’t Bet Against the Dollar:
U.S. competitors are pushing the limits of autonomy within a dollar-based system, but there isn’t a real global alternative—and the world is far from an inflection point.
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