Schlagwort: international trade
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German economy – How are you doing?
The recovery of the German economy from the stagnation and recession phase is still proceeding tentatively and unevenly.
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Here is what our network liked (selection): Measuring geopolitical fragmentation, tariffs as cost-push shocks, China’s economic transition, and much more…
Central Banks and the End of Stability
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Macro Bite: Value Added and Industrial Production
Industrial production in Germany has declined quite significantly. This is naturally not a cause for celebration. However, the situation of industry is still not as dire as portrayed in these charts. This is because industrial value added – that is, what actually generates value and leads to income – has remained roughly constant in Germany…
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German economy – How are you doing?
The glass now looks more half full than half empty again for the German economy. It is now important that the federal government’s investment packages can unfold their effect and that trade relations with the United States become more predictable again.
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Here is what our network liked (selection): Inflation attention, optimal tariffs with geopolitical alignment, and much more…
In the United States, there are now initial signs that tariffs affect inflation.
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Japanese economy – How are you doing?
The Japanese economy has developed remarkably well in the first half of 2025. Now, somewhat lower economic growth rates are expected.
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Chinese economy – How are you doing?
The People’s Bank of China is expected to continue to cut interest rates against the backdrop of low inflation and weak domestic demand.
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US Economy – How are you doing?
We expect a stagflationary episode in that meager economic growth and somewhat elevated inflation will occur together next winter. In our baseline scenario, the economy will experience stagnation but not fall into a recession.