Dear friends of the International and Monetary Economics Network
Our network is growing fast. In 2026, we will further expand our activities and contributions to debates on international economics, monetary policy, and related topics.
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In our webinars and in-person events, members of the network or guests are invited to present. Interested persons can contact us.
Webinar: EU Industrial Policy in a Fracturing Global Economy (Peter Obinger, Austrian Federal Economic Chamber)
- March 5, 12:00 – 13:00 Central European Time
- Online via Zoom
- In English
Industrial policy is back in fashion. In recent years, European countries have increasingly turned to industrial policy against the backdrop of geopolitical fragmentation, supply chain risks, or the green transition. Well-targeted industrial policy has the potential to correct market failures and bring about benefits. At the same time, even carefully designed industrial policies risk generating negative production externalities in other countries and may not be welfare-enhancing for the implementing country.
Peter Obinger is an economist at the Economic Policy Department of the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber, where he specialises in industrial and energy policy. He also serves as an editor for “Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter” one of Austria’s largest applied economic policy journals.
REGISTRATION HERE
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Too-Big-To-Fail Regulation: What’s Next? Public lecture by Vera Imfeld (Head Banking Unit, State Secretariat for International Finance)
- March 17, 18:30 – 19:30 Central European Time
- Fabio Canetg is the moderator of this event.
- University of Bern, main building, room HS 101, Hochschulstrasse 4, Bern
- In German, followed by a reception
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Bank of Japan Keeps Rates at 30-Year High. There are speculations that Japanese authorities could be preparing currency interventions.
On January 28, the Fed will decide on its interest rates. In a recent survey, our community expects the Fed to keep interest rates constant.
On February 5, the ECB will decide on its interest rates. In a recent survey, our community expects the ECB to keep interest rates constant.
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Here is what caught our eye (selection): Who pays the tariffs, stablecoins, the transmission of foreign shocks, and much more…
„The First Three Weeks of the Year Will Reshape the World: From Davos to Minneapolis, the events of this month have the potential to profoundly change the political and economic landscape for years to come“ by Greg Ip.
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Who will succeed Christine Lagarde at the European Central Bank? According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, „Dutchman Klaas Knot is most likely to succeed Christine Lagarde at the helm of the European Central Bank.“
Other economists have made the case for the first German ECB president:Spyros Andreopoulos (Thin Ice Macroeconomics): „The Case for a German ECB President: Because symbolism matters in politics; and because policies matter for the euro„
Similarly, Stefan Gerlach (EFG Bank, Swiss Macro and History) argues: „It Is Time for a German ECB President: Why the case against one is weak„
There are several other interesting articles on the ECB presidency. Another perspective comes from John Orchard: „ECB presidency: the race gets under way„
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Wow, super interesting!
„Money Beyond Borders: Global Currencies from Croesus to Crypto“ by Barry Eichengreen
„Doubts about the international dominance of the dollar are only growing amid worries about tariffs, political dysfunction, and fraying international alliances. Will the dollar continue to reign supreme? In Money Beyond Borders, the leading authority on international currencies, Barry Eichengreen, puts the dollar’s prospects in deep historical perspective by chronicling the entire history of cross-border currencies, from the invention of coins in the seventh century BCE to the cryptocurrencies of today and the central bank digital currencies of tomorrow.“
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Super interesting!
„From Par to Pressure: Liquidity, Redemptions, and Fire Sales with a Systemic Stablecoin“ by Marco Gross and Richard Senner.
„Fiat-backed stablecoins are expanding, and their issuers may attain systemic relevance as reserve portfolios grow and as they become increasingly intertwined with financial markets. This paper analyzes the resulting risks and the design choices that can mitigate them. …The economics discussion and model analysis conclude that robust prudential design can substantially stabilize stablecoins and their surrounding market environment.“
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Point Zero Forum, 23-25 June 2026
“The global financial landscape has entered a new cycle. Technologies once confined to labs are now reshaping how money moves, how risk is managed, and how wealth is held. For its 5th Anniversary, Point Zero Forum moves to a brand new location at the Kongresshaus, overlooking Lake Zurich in the heart of the financial district.”
Registration now open here
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Highly relevant!
„Control and Ownership of Digital Assets A Comparative Law Survey“ edited by Linda Jeng, Mirjam Eggen, and Sebastian Omlor.
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Super interesting!
„The Transmission of Foreign Shocks in a Networked Economy“ by Pablo Aguilar, Rubén Domínguez-Díaz, José-Elías Gallegos, and Javier Quintana.
„We analyze how production networks transmit foreign price shocks and reshape monetary policy trade-offs in an open-economy New Keynesian model with domestic and international input–output linkages. Analytically, we show that closing the output gap does not generally stabilize domestic inflation, as sector-level terms-of-trade movements and trade imbalances become additional drivers of inflation dynamics. Quantitatively, we study an international energy price shock in a model calibrated to major euro area countries and their trade partners. We find that production networks significantly amplify the cumulative headline inflation response and substantially worsen monetary policy trade-offs, as measured by the sacrifice ratio.“
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Highly relevant!
„Macroeconomic implications of immigration flows in 2025 and 2026: January 2026 update“ by Wendy Edelberg, Stan Veuger, and Tara Watson.
„Reduced migration will dampen growth in the labor force, consumer spending, and gross domestic product (GDP). We estimate the sustainable pace of monthly job growth to be between 20,000 and 50,000 in late 2025 and believe it could be negative in 2026.“
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Highly relevant!
„America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs?“ by Julian Hinz, Aaron Lohmann, Hendrik Mahlkow, and A. Vorwig.
„The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers.“
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Super interesting!
„Deposit Funding and the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy“ by Matthieu Bussière, Tommaso Gasparini, Guillaume Horny, and Benoît Nguyen.
„Our empirical findings reveal that banks with a higher reliance on deposit funding exhibit a more muted increase in lending rates following monetary policy tightening. These results are consistent with a mechanism in which deposit funding shapes bank loan supply.““Our results highlight that the structure of bank funding is a critical determinant of monetary policy transmission. Heterogeneity across banks means that policy tightening does not affect all institutions—or borrowers—equally. For central banks, understanding these dynamics is essential to ensure effective transmission.“
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Global Economy Flash: Seemingly resilient amid headwinds, yet fragile
- Global GDP growth remains solid and global trade has proven more resilient than expected. However, higher tariffs and rising protectionism will weigh on global growth and trade in 2026 and 2027.
- We expect global economic output to increase by 3.1 percent in 2026. For 2027, we currently anticipate a slight acceleration to 3.2 percent.
- The US economy benefits from the AI boom, but the rest of the economy is less strong. However, US households benefit from the easing of fiscal and monetary policies. Inflation remains too high, and we should worry about the independence of the Fed.
- The Chinese economy depends on exports and manufacturing, while domestic demand continues to struggle.
- The Euro area remains on a solid growth path despite structural challenges and high debt in some countries. The German fiscal stimulus will gradually lift growth in Germany and also spill over to other European countries.
- Monetary and fiscal policy: Fiscal policy is mostly expansionary, while monetary policy is becoming increasingly divergent.
- The Swiss economy remains resilient with modest growth rates. The pharmaceutical sector will be less of a growth driver than in the past.
- Many (mostly downside) risks, among them: Conflicts and geopolitical tensions have the potential to escalate, supply chains for critical raw materials are fragile, the AI boom could end abruptly, and potential public debt crises.
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Macro Bite: The Puzzling U.S. Economy
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We are always open to collaborations. Please feel free to contact us.
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